Umbiko we-IPCC: Ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kusabalele, kuyashesha futhi kuyaqina

Ososayensi babona izinguquko zesimo sezulu soMhlaba kuzo zonke izifunda nakuso sonke isimiso sezulu, ngokombiko wakamuva we-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), okhishwe namuhla.

Izinguquko eziningi ezibonwe esimweni sezulu azikaze zibe khona ezinkulungwaneni, noma emakhulwini ezinkulungwane zeminyaka, futhi ezinye zezinguquko eseziqalile kakade—njengokuqhubeka nokukhuphuka kolwandle—azinakuguqulwa phakathi namakhulu kuya ezinkulungwaneni zeminyaka.

Kodwa-ke, ukuncipha okuqinile nokuqhubekayo kokukhishwa kwe-carbon dioxide (CO2) namanye amagesi abamba ukushisa kunganciphisa ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Nakuba izinzuzo zekhwalithi yomoya zizofika ngokushesha, kungase kuthathe iminyaka engu-20-30 ukubona amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke azinza, ngokombiko we-IPCC Working Group I, Uguquko Lwesimo Sezulu 2021: I-Physical Science Basis, egunyazwe ngoLwesihlanu ngohulumeni abangamalungu angu-195 be-IPCC, ngeseshini yokugunyaza ebonakalayo eyayibanjwe emasontweni amabili kusukela ngoJulayi 26.

Hoesung Lee, uSihlalo we-IPCC:

"Lo mbiko ubonisa imizamo emangalisayo ngaphansi kwezimo ezingavamile. Imibono emisha kulo mbiko, kanye nentuthuko yesayensi yesimo sezulu ebonisayo, inikeza umbono obalulekile ezingxoxweni zesimo sezulu nasekuthathweni kwezinqumo."

Ukufudumala okusheshayo

Lo mbiko uhlinzeka ngezilinganiso ezintsha zamathuba okuwela izinga lokufudumala kwembulunga yonke elingu-1.5°C emashumini eminyaka alandelayo, futhi uthola ukuthi ngaphandle kokuba kube khona ukuncipha okusheshayo, okusheshayo nokukhulu kokukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa, okukhawulela ukufudumala kusondele ku-1.5°C noma ngisho no-2°C ngeke kufinyeleleke.

Umbiko ukhombisa ukuthi ukukhishwa kwe ukushisa okushisa amagesi avela emisebenzini yabantu anesibopho sokufudumala okungaba ngu-1.1°C kusukela ngo-1850-1900, futhi uthola ukuthi ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neminyaka engu-20 ezayo, izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele noma lidlule ku-1.5°C wokufudumala.

Lokhu kuhlola kusekelwe emininingwaneni ethuthukisiwe yokubuka ukuze kuhlolwe ukufudumala komlando, kanye nenqubekelaphambili ekuqondeni kwesayensi impendulo yohlelo lwesimo sezulu ekukhiqizweni kwesisi esingcolisa umoya esibangelwa abantu.

Umbiko weQembu Elisebenzayo I uyisitolimende sokuqala sombiko Wokuhlola Wesithupha we-IPCC (AR6), ozoqedwa ngo-2022.

U-Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Usihlalo Wokubambisana Weqembu Le-IPCC:

“Lo mbiko uwukuhlola okwenzeka ngempela. Manje sinesithombe esicace kakhudlwana sesimo sezulu esidlule, samanje nesesikhathini esizayo, okubalulekile ukuze siqonde ukuthi siphokophelephi, yini engenziwa nokuthi singazilungiselela kanjani.”

Zonke izifunda ezibhekene nezinguquko ezikhulayo

Izici eziningi zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu zincike ngokuqondile ezingeni lokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, kodwa lokho abantu ababhekana nakho ngokuvamile kuhluke kakhulu kunesilinganiso somhlaba. Ngokwesibonelo, ukufudumala phezu komhlaba kukhulu kunesilinganiso somhlaba wonke, futhi kuphakeme ngokuphindwe kabili e-Arctic.

U-Panmao Zhai, Usihlalo Wokubambisana Weqembu Le-IPCC:

"Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu sekuvele kuthinta zonke izifunda eMhlabeni, ngezindlela eziningi. Izinguquko esibhekana nazo zizokhula ngokufudumala okwengeziwe."

Umbiko uveza ukuthi emashumini eminyaka ezayo izinguquko zesimo sezulu zizokwanda kuzo zonke izifunda. Ku-1.5°C wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, kuzoba namagagasi okushisa akhulayo, izinkathi ezinde ezifudumele kanye nezinkathi ezibandayo ezimfishane.

Ku-2°C wokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, ukushisa okwedlulele ngokuvamile kungafinyelela emikhawulweni ebalulekile yokubekezelela ezolimo nempilo, kusho umbiko.

Kodwa akukhona nje mayelana nezinga lokushisa. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuletha izinguquko eziningi ezihlukene ezifundeni ezahlukene - zonke zizokwanda ngokunyuka kokufudumala. Lokhu kuhlanganisa izinguquko ekubeni manzi nokomisa, emimoyeni, iqhwa neqhwa, izindawo ezisogwini nezilwandle. Ngokwesibonelo:

• Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuqinisa umjikelezo wamanzi. Lokhu kuletha imvula enamandla kakhulu kanye nezikhukhula ezihambisana nazo, kanye nesomiso esishubile ezindaweni eziningi.
• Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuthinta amaphethini emvula. Ezindaweni eziphakeme, imvula kungenzeka inyuke, kuyilapho kulindeleke ukuthi yehle ezingxenyeni ezinkulu ze-subtropics. Izinguquko emvuleni yezimvula ezinkulu zilindelekile, ezizohluka ngendawo.
• Izindawo ezisogwini zizobona ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kulo lonke ikhulunyaka lama-21, okunomthelela ezikhukhuleni ezivame kakhulu nezibi kakhulu ezindaweni eziphansi kanye nokuguguleka kogu. Izehlakalo eziphakeme kakhulu zolwandle ezake zenzeka kanye eminyakeni eyikhulu zingenzeka minyaka yonke ekupheleni kwaleli khulu leminyaka.
• Ukufudumala okwengeziwe kuzokhulisa ukuncibilika kweqhwa, nokulahlekelwa ukumbozwa kweqhwa ngezikhathi ezithile zonyaka, ukuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa namaqhwa, nokulahlekelwa yiqhwa ehlobo lase-Arctic Sea.
• Izinguquko olwandle, okuhlanganisa ukufudumala, amagagasi okushisa olwandle avamile, i-acidification yolwandle, kanye namazinga omoya-mpilo ancishisiwe kuye kwaxhunyaniswa ngokucacile nethonya lomuntu. Lezi zinguquko zithinta kokubili imvelo yasolwandle kanye nabantu abathembele kuzo, futhi zizoqhubeka okungenani kulo lonke leli khulu leminyaka.
• Emadolobheni, ezinye izici zokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu zingakhuliswa, okuhlanganisa ukushisa (njengoba izindawo zasemadolobheni zivame ukufudumala kunendawo ezizungezile), izikhukhula ezivela ezenzakalweni zemvula enamandla kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle emadolobheni asogwini.

Ngokokuqala ngqa, Umbiko Wokuhlola Wesithupha uhlinzeka ngokuhlolwa kwesifunda okunemininingwane eyengeziwe mayelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, okuhlanganisa ukugxila olwazini oluwusizo olungazisa ukuhlolwa kwengozi, ukuzivumelanisa nezimo, nokunye ukuthathwa kwezinqumo, kanye nohlaka olusha olusiza ukuhumusha izinguquko ezibonakalayo zesimo sezulu - ukushisa, amakhaza, imvula, isomiso, iqhwa, umoya, izikhukhula zasogwini nokunye - kulokho ezikushoyo emphakathini kanye ne-ecosystem.

Lolu lwazi lwesifunda lungacutshungulwa ngokuningiliziwe ku-Interactive Atlas esanda kwakhiwa kanye namaphepha amaqiniso esifunda, isifinyezo sobuchwepheshe, kanye nombiko oyisisekelo.

Lolu lwazi lwesifunda lungacutshungulwa ngokuningiliziwe ku-Interactive Atlas esanda kwakhiwa kanye namaphepha amaqiniso esifunda, isifinyezo sobuchwepheshe, kanye nombiko oyisisekelo.

IMasson-Delmotte:
 “Sekungamashumi eminyaka kusobala ukuthi isimo sezulu soMhlaba siyashintsha, futhi indima yethonya lomuntu esimisweni sezulu ayinakuphikiswa.” Nokho umbiko omusha ubuye ubonise intuthuko enkulu kusayensi yokuchaza isimo sezulu - ukuqonda indima yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu ekuqiniseni izimo ezithile zesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu esifana namagagasi okushisa amakhulu nezimvula ezinamandla.

Lo mbiko ukhombisa nokuthi izenzo zomuntu zisenamandla okunquma inkambo yesikhathi esizayo yesimo sezulu. Ubufakazi busobala bokuthi i-carbon dioxide (CO2) iyona ehamba phambili yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, njengoba namanye amagesi abamba ukushisa kanye nezinto ezingcolisa umoya nazo zithinta isimo sezulu.

I-Panmao Zhai:
 "Ukusimamisa isimo sezulu kuzodinga ukuncishiswa okuqinile, okusheshayo, nokuqhubekayo kwesisi esingcolisa umoya, kanye nokufinyelela ekukhishweni kwe-CO2 eyi-zero. Ukunciphisa amanye amagesi abamba ukushisa kanye nezinto ezingcolisa umoya, ikakhulukazi i-methane, kungaba nezinzuzo kokubili kwezempilo kanye nesimo sezulu."

Isimo Samanje Sesimo SezuluIgalelo leQembu Elisebenzayo Lombiko Wokuhlola Wesithupha likhuluma ngokuqondwa kwakamuva kakhulu kwesimiso sezulu kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, kuhlanganisa ndawonye intuthuko yakamuva kusayensi yesimo sezulu, futhi kuhlanganiswe imigqa eminingi yobufakazi obuvela ku-paleoclimate, ukubonwa, ukuqonda inqubo, kanye nokulingiswa kwesimo sezulu somhlaba wonke nesifunda.

Kusukela ku-AR5, ukuthuthukiswa kwezilinganiso ezisekelwe ekuhloleni nolwazi oluvela ezinqolobaneni ze-paleoclimate kunikeza umbono ophelele wengxenye ngayinye yohlelo lwesimo sezulu kanye nezinguquko zayo kuze kube manje.

Ukulingiswa kwemodeli yesimo sezulu esisha, ukuhlaziya okusha, nezindlela ezihlanganisa imigqa eminingi yobufakazi kuholela ekuthuthukisweni kokuqondwa kwethonya lomuntu ezinhlobonhlobo ezibanzi zesimo sezulu, okuhlanganisa isimo sezulu nesimo sezulu esibi.

Izikhathi ezicatshangelwa kuso sonke lesi Sigaba zincike ekutholakaleni kwemikhiqizo yokubuka, izingobo zomlando ze-paleoclimate kanye nezifundo ezibuyekezwe ontanga.

Akungabazeki ukuthi ithonya lomuntu liye lafudumeza umkhathi, ulwandle nomhlaba. Izinguquko ezisabalele futhi ezisheshayo emkhathini, ulwandle, i-cryosphere kanye ne-biosphere zenzekile. Ukwenyuka okubonwayo kwegesi ebamba ukushisa exubene kahle (GHG) kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1750 kubangelwa ngokungangabazeki imisebenzi yabantu.

Ngayinye emashumini amane eminyaka edlule ibe nokufudumala okulandelanayo kunanoma iliphi ishumi leminyaka elandulelayo kusukela ngo-1850. Imvula elinganiselwe emhlabeni wonke phezu komhlaba cishe inyuke kusukela ngo-1950, ngezinga elisheshayo lokukhula kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1980 (ukuzethemba okumaphakathi).

Kungenzeka ukuthi umthelela womuntu ube nomthelela kuphethini yezinguquko zemvula eziphawuliwe kusukela maphakathi nekhulu lama-20, futhi kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi umthelela womuntu ube negalelo kuphethini yezinguquko ezibonwayo kusawoti olwandle oseduze nomhlaba.

Umthelela womuntu kungenzeka ukuthi umshayeli omkhulu wokuhlehla kwezinguzunga zeqhwa emhlabeni wonke kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1990 kanye nokwehla kwendawo yeqhwa olwandle i-Arctic phakathi kuka-1979-1988 no-2010-2019 (cishe ama-40% ngoSepthemba futhi cishe i-10% ngoMashi).

Kuqinisekile ukuthi ulwandle olungaphezulu komhlaba (0-700 m) lufudumala kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1970s futhi kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi ithonya lomuntu liyimbangela eyinhloko. Kuqinisekile ukuthi ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 okubangelwa umuntu kuyimbangela eyinhloko ye-asidi yomhlaba wonke yamanje olwandle oluvulekile.

Izinguquko ku-land biosphere kusukela ngo-1970 zihambisana nokufudumala kwembulunga yonke: izindawo zesimo sezulu zigudluke zaba phezulu kuwo womabili ama-hemispheres, futhi inkathi yokukhula ngokwesilinganiso inwetshwe kufika ezinsukwini ezimbili eshumini ngalinye kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1950s endaweni yaseNyakatho Nenkabazwe (ukuzethemba okuphezulu).

Ukufudumala okubhekiwe kuqhutshwa ukukhishwa kwezinto ezenziwa abantu, ngokufudumeza kwegesi ebamba ukushisa ngokwengxenye kufihlwe ukupholisa i-aerosol.

Umlando wokushintsha kwezinga lokushisa lomhlaba kanye nezimbangela zokufudumala kwakamuva

Iminikelo ehloliwe yokubona ukufudumala ngo-2010-2019 uma kuqhathaniswa no-1850-1900Isilinganiso sezinguquko zakamuva ohlelweni lwesimo sezulu lulonke kanye nesimo samanje sezinto eziningi zohlelo lwesimo sezulu asikaze sibe khona emakhulwini amaningi eminyaka kuya ezinkulungwaneni eziningi zeminyaka.

Ngo-2019, ukugxila kwe-CO2 emkhathini kwakuphakeme kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi okungenani eminyakeni eyizigidi ezi-2 (ukuzethemba okuphezulu), futhi ukugxila kwe-CH4 ne-N2O kwakuphakeme kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi okungenani eminyakeni engu-800,000 (ukuzethemba okuphezulu kakhulu).

Izinga lokushisa emhlabeni wonke liye lenyuka ngokushesha kusukela ngo-1970 kunanoma yisiphi esinye isikhathi seminyaka engu-50 okungenani eminyakeni engu-2000 edlule (ukuzethemba okuphezulu). Izinga lolwandle lomhlaba wonke liye lenyuka ngokushesha kusukela ngo-1900 kunanoma yiliphi ikhulu leminyaka elidlule okungenani eminyakeni engu-3000 edlule (ukuzethemba okuphezulu).

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu sekuvele kuthinta isimo sezulu esiningi nesimo sezulu esibi kuzo zonke izifunda emhlabeni jikelele.

Kuqinisekile ukuthi ukushisa okushisayo (okuhlanganisa namagagasi okushisa) sekuvame kakhulu futhi kushube kakhulu ezindaweni eziningi zomhlaba kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1950, kuyilapho ukubanda okudlulele (okuhlanganisa namagagasi abandayo) sekunciphile futhi kubi kakhulu, ngokuqiniseka okukhulu ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okubangelwa abantu yikona okuyimbangela engu-14 yalezi zinguquko.

Iqoqo lezimo ezintsha ezibonisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ezinhlanu zibhekwa ngokungaguquguquki kuwo wonke umbiko ukuhlola ukusabela kwesimo sezulu kuhlu olubanzi lwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG), ukusetshenziswa komhlaba kanye nekusasa elingcolisa umoya kunokuhlolwa kwe-AR5. Ungafunda ngalezi zimo embikweni ogcwele.

Ulwazi Lwesimo Sezulu Lokuhlola Ubungozi kanye Nokuzijwayeza Kwesifunda

Ulwazi lwesimo sezulu esibonakalayo lukhuluma ngendlela isimo sezulu esisabela ngayo ekusebenzisaneni phakathi kwethonya lomuntu, abashayeli bemvelo kanye nokuhlukahluka kwangaphakathi. Ulwazi lokusabela kwesimo sezulu kanye nohlu lwemiphumela engaba khona, okuhlanganisa ukungaba khona okuncane, imiphumela ephezulu yomthelela, yazisa izinsizakalo zesimo sezulu - ukuhlolwa kwezingozi ezihlobene nesimo sezulu kanye nokuhlelwa kokuzivumelanisa nezimo.

Ulwazi lwesimo sezulu esilinganisweni somhlaba wonke, isifunda kanye nesendawo luthuthukiswa kusukela emigqeni eminingi yobufakazi, okuhlanganisa imikhiqizo yokuqaphela, imiphumela yemodeli yesimo sezulu kanye nokuxilongwa okulungiselelwe. Abashayeli bemvelo kanye nokuhlukahluka kwangaphakathi kuzoshintsha izinguquko ezibangelwa abantu, ikakhulukazi esikalini sesifunda kanye nesikhathi esiseduze, okunomthelela omncane ekufudumaleni komhlaba kwekhulunyaka.

Ngokuqhubeka kokufudumala kwembulunga yonke, zonke izifunda kulindeleke ukuthi zibe nezinguquko ezenzeka kanyekanye neziningi ezibangela umthelela wesimo sezulu. Izinguquko ezishayeli zomthelela wesimo sezulu eziningana zingasakazeka kakhulu ku-2°C uma kuqhathaniswa no-1.5°C ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke futhi zisabalele nakakhulu kanye/noma zisho amazinga okufudumala aphezulu.

Imiphumela engenzeka ibe mancane, njengokuwa kweshidi leqhwa, izinguquko ezingalindelekile zokujikeleza kolwandle, ezinye izehlakalo ezimbi kakhulu kanye nokufudumala okukhulu kakhulu kunohlu oluhloliwe lokufudumala okuzayo ngeke kukhishwe futhi kuyingxenye yokuhlola ubungozi.

Ukunciphisa Ukushintsha Kwesimo Sezulu Sesikhathi esizayoKusukela ku-AR5, izilinganiso zezabelomali zekhabhoni ezisele zithuthukiswe ngendlela entsha eyethulwa okokuqala ku-SR1.5, ubufakazi obusha, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwemiphumela evela emigqeni eminingi yobufakazi. Uhlu olubanzi lwezilawuli zokunukubezeka komoya ezingaba khona esikhathini esizayo ezimweni zisetshenziswa ukuze kuhlolwe njalo imiphumela yokuqagela okuhlukahlukene ekuqageleni kwesimo sezulu kanye nokungcoliswa komoya.

Ukuthuthukiswa kwenoveli ikhono lokuqinisekisa ukuthi izimpendulo zesimo sezulu ekuncishisweni kwesisi zingabonakala nini ngaphezu kokuhlukahluka kwesimo sezulu semvelo, okuhlanganisa ukuhlukahluka kwangaphakathi kanye nezimpendulo kubashayeli bemvelo.

Ngokombono wesayensi yezinto ezibonakalayo, ukukhawulela ukufudumala kwembulunga okubangelwa umuntu kuye ezingeni elithile kudinga ukukhawulela ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 okunqwabelanayo, kufinyelele okungenani ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 eyiziro, kanye nokuncipha okuqinile kokunye ukukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa. Ukwehliswa okuqinile, okusheshayo nokuqhubekayo kokukhishwa kwe-CH4 nakho kuzokhawulela umphumela wokufudumala obangelwa ukwehla kokungcola kwe-aerosol futhi kuzothuthukisa ikhwalithi yomoya.

Lo mbiko uqinisekisa ngokuqiniseka okukhulu ukuthola kwe-AR5 ukuthi kunobudlelwano obuseduze phakathi kokukhishwa kwe-anthropogenic CO2 kanye nokufudumala kwembulunga okukudalayo.

Ubudlelwano obuseduze phakathi kokukhishwa kwe-CO2 okukhulayo kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke(Chofoza isithombe ukuze ufunde isifinyezo sombiko!)