I-united states·Izindaba

IMexico iqinisa isikhundla sayo njengendawo ehamba phambili yokuthumela amazambane e-US

U-Alexey Demin 14 Septhemba 2026 I-5 min ifunde Kubuyekeziwe 15 Septhemba 2026

Ukuthatha okhiye

671,567 tonnes FWE shipped to Mexico, the largest market
500.9 mln dollars: Japan leads on value, not on volume
2.99 mln tonnes of total exports, down 4.8% on the year
14.9% rise in fresh volume against only 6.8% in value

Kungani kubalulekile

Kwabalimi: If your crop goes to the fresh export channel, note that volume rose 14.9 percent while value rose 6.8 percent: plan on shipping more tonnes for the same money, and check contract terms rather than assuming the growth carries a price premium.
Okwamaphrosesa: Frozen product is still the export backbone at 1.38 million tonnes and 1.33 billion dollars, and Japan pays roughly 802 dollars per tonne against Mexico’s 628 - direct frozen capacity at the Asia-Pacific specification, not at the volume markets.
Kwabahwebi: Do not rank destinations on tonnage alone: the top three sit within 8 percent of each other by volume but differ by nearly 50 percent in unit value, so route product by market mix - frozen east, fresh and raw to North America.
Kwabahlinzeki: Sellers of storage, grading and packing equipment should follow the fresh segment, which grew from 19.6 to 23.6 percent of export volume: that expansion is in handling tonnes, and it is where added capacity is being absorbed.
Kwabatshalizimali: A second consecutive annual decline, 4.8 percent in volume and 6.3 percent in value, with growth only in the lowest unit-value category, points to margin compression rather than a demand shock - read the category mix before pricing US export exposure.

60-isekhondi isifinyezo

Mexico took 671,567 tonnes fresh weight equivalent of US potatoes and potato products in the July 2025 to June 2026 marketing year, holding first place by volume ahead of Canada at 642,330 tonnes and Japan at 624,391 - a spread of under 8 percent across the top three. By value the order reverses: Japan bought 500.9 million dollars worth, Mexico 421.8 million and Canada 336.7 million, because Japan takes a heavier share of frozen product while Mexico and Canada take fresh and raw. Total US exports fell for a second year, to about 2.99 million tonnes worth 2.17 billion dollars, down 4.8 percent in volume and 6.3 percent in value. Frozen product remains the largest category at 1.38 million tonnes. Fresh potatoes were the exception, up 14.9 percent in volume but only 6.8 percent in value - growth on tonnage, not on price realised.

I-671,567 tMexico, first by volume

I-642,330 tCanada, second by volume

I-624,391 tJapan, third by volume

$500.9 millionJapan, first by value

2.99 mln ttotal US exports 2025/26

-4.8%ivolumu yokuthumela ngaphandle unyaka nonyaka

+ 14.9%fresh potato volume

Mexico has confirmed its status as the largest export market for US potatoes and potato products by volume. Shipments to the Mexican market reached 671,567 tonnes in fresh weight equivalent (FWE) during the July 2025–June 2026 marketing year, according to figures released by Potatoes USA and drawn from US Department of Commerce data compiled by Trade Data Monitor.

Volume and value tell different stories

In tonnage terms, the top three destinations sit close together. Mexico is followed by Canada at 642,330 tonnes FWE and Japan at 624,391 tonnes FWE — a spread of under 8% between first and third place.

The ranking reverses on value. Japan led with purchases worth US$500.9 million, ahead of Mexico at US$421.8 million and Canada at US$336.7 million. Taken together, the three markets accounted for more than half of total US potato export earnings for the year.

Inhlolovo yemboni yasekuseni Izinto ezibalulekile zosuku ku-imeyili eyodwa.

Izinsuku zeviki. Zikhiphe ohlwini ngokuchofoza okukodwa.

Market	Volume, tonnes FWE	Value, US$ million	Implied unit value, US$/tonne
Mexico	671,567	421.8	~ 628
Canada	642,330	336.7	~ 524
Japan	624,391	500.9	~ 802

Unit values are calculated from the published Potatoes USA aggregates and are indicative only. They reflect product mix rather than transaction pricing and should not be read as contract values.

The gap in unit value reflects what each market buys. Japan draws heavily on higher-value frozen products, while Mexican and Canadian volumes carry a substantially larger share of fresh and raw product.

Overall exports declined for a second year

US exports totalled approximately 2.99 million tonnes FWE worth US$2.17 billion in 2025/26. Against the previous cycle, volume fell 4.8% and value declined 6.3%.

By category, frozen potato products remained the largest segment at 1.38 million tonnes FWE and US$1.33 billion — roughly 46% of total export volume. Fresh potatoes accounted for 706,152 tonnes worth US$351.7 million; dehydrated products for 675,972 tonnes worth US$223.7 million; and potato chips for 193,916 tonnes worth US$244.6 million.

Regionally, the Americas took 1.57 million tonnes FWE, or about 52.5% of export volume. Asia-Pacific imported 1.30 million tonnes (43.5%), Central and South-West Asia 88,297 tonnes, and Europe 32,313 tonnes.

Fresh potatoes the standout performer

Against a generally weaker picture, fresh potatoes posted clear growth: volume rose 14.9% and value 6.8%. The category’s share of total export volume climbed from 19.6% to 23.6%.

That volume gains outpaced value gains by a wide margin points to softer realised prices. The segment expanded on tonnage rather than on improved returns per tonne — a distinction worth holding onto when reading the headline growth figure.

Potato chips also advanced, up 8.4% in volume and 10.4% in value. The overall export contraction was driven principally by dehydrated products and the frozen segment.

Four years on from full market access

Mexico’s growth traces directly to the opening of the entire country to US fresh potatoes in May 2022. Before that, phytosanitary rules confined shipments to a 26-kilometre strip along the border — a restriction dating to Mexico’s NOM-012-FITO-1996 standard that effectively excluded US exporters from the bulk of the domestic market, including the major metropolitan centres.

The restriction survived repeated attempts to lift it. Mexico agreed to full access in 2014, only for the national growers’ confederation CONPAPA to sue the federal government and win at lower-court level. The case ran until April 2021, when Mexico’s Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the government did hold the authority to set agricultural import rules. Nationwide access followed in May 2022.

The four-year result: US fresh potato shipments to Mexico rose from 123,000 tonnes worth US$68.2 million in 2021/22 to 274,000 tonnes worth US$125.3 million in 2025/26 — growth of 123% by volume and 84% by value.

The gap between those two figures is material. Implied unit value fell from roughly US$554 to US$457 per tonne over the period, a decline of around 18%. Market penetration came in part on price.

Mexico now takes some 39% of all US fresh potato exports. Fresh product, however, represents only around 41% of Mexican purchases in physical terms; the remainder is processed, predominantly frozen.

What it means for the sector

Three factors keep Mexico strategically important to the US industry: proximity and the correspondingly low freight cost; deep trade integration under the USMCA; and domestic demand supported by the expansion of quick-service restaurant chains and organised retail.

Concentration cuts both ways, though. With over half of export value resting on three markets, the trade is exposed to regulatory and phytosanitary decisions taken in individual countries. Mexico’s own history — nearly two decades of restricted access, resolved only through the courts — illustrates how quickly trade flows can be reshaped by a single ruling.

The second consecutive annual decline in exports also reflects external pressure. China and India continue to expand frozen potato product shipments into South-East Asia, historically one of the key growth regions for US processors.

Imithombo: Potatoes USA (US Department of Commerce data compiled by Trade Data Monitor); National Potato Council; Argenpapa; FreshPlaza; Capital Press.

Okulandelayo

The article reports a second consecutive year of decline without giving a forecast for the next marketing year. Whether the fresh segment keeps growing on tonnage alone is left open.

Imithombo

Figures released by Potatoes USA, drawn from US Department of Commerce data compiled by Trade Data Monitor. The implied unit values per tonne are calculated by the article from published aggregates and reflect product mix, not transaction or contract pricing.