Njengoba sesixoxile kakade ngezilinganiso zokukhuphuka kwezindleko zomkhiqizi, umbuzo osalayo uthi, Ingabe lokhu kwenyuka kwezindleko kuzosho inzuzo encane?
Lo mbhalo uvela kufayela le- March 2022 ukukhishwa kwe Umtshali Wamazambane.
Uyasikhumbula isikhathi sokugcina lapho uzwa inkulumo evamile emphakathini yezamabhizinisi: “Kumelwe uchithe imali ukuze wenze imali”?
Nokho, ukuzwa lelo gama kungase kuvame kakhulu ngonyaka wezitshalo ka-2022, futhi kungase kudingeke kulungiswe ukuze kube: “Kufanele usebenzise imali eningi ukuze wenze imali.” Lokho kungenxa yokuthi i-USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) ilinganisela ukuthi cishe zonke izindleko zokufakwa epulazini, okuhlanganisa imbewu, ugesi, umanyolo, uphethiloli namafutha, ukulungisa nokunakekela, abasebenzi, inzalo, kanye nerenti, zizoba phezulu ngo-2021-22 unyaka wesivuno kunonyaka wezitshalo ka-2020-21.
Isibulala-zinambuzane siwukuphela kwesigaba sokufakwayo lapho ukwanda konyaka nonyaka kungabikezelwe. Amagalelo anezinguquko ezinkulu kakhulu kusukela kowokugcina kuya onyakeni wesivuno wamanje umanyolo, okulinganiselwa ukuthi mkhulu kuno-12% okhuphuka unyaka nonyaka; kanye nophethiloli namafutha, okulinganiselwa ngaphezu kwama-32%. Imiklamo ye-ERS izokwenyuka ngenani eliphelele lezindleko zokukhiqiza epulazini ngaphezu kuka-8% kulo nyaka wezitshalo uma kuqhathaniswa nonyaka odlule. Inhloso yalesi sihloko ukuxoxa ngemithelela yenzuzo yalesi simo esisha, esibiza kakhulu sokukhiqiza kubakhiqizi bamazambane ngonyaka wezitshalo ka-2022.
Kunemiyalezo emithathu eyisihluthulelo yokuthatha, futhi sixoxa ngayo yonke imininingwane eyengeziwe ngezansi. Okokuqala, ngokususelwa ekuqaguleni kwe-ERS, abakhiqizi bamazambane kufanele balindele ukuthi izindleko zokukhiqiza zizoba phezulu ngo-2022 kunango-2021. Okwesibili, ukuthi lezi zindleko zokukhiqiza ziyanda yini ukubaluleka kwenzuzo yemboni kuncike ekunwebeni kwentengo yesidingo samazambane. Okwesithathu, inzuzo yepulazi lamazambane ngalinye izothonywa uhlelo lokumaketha futhi, ikakhulukazi, izinga imali engenayo ephezulu kanye/noma izindleko eziqinile noma eziphansi ezingatholwa ngamathuluzi okulawula ubungozi njengezinkontileka.
Izindleko Ziyenyuka
Njengoba sesixoxile kakade ngezilinganiso zokukhuphuka kwezindleko zomkhiqizi, umbuzo osalayo uthi, Ingabe lokhu kwenyuka kwezindleko kuzosho inzuzo encane? Siphikisa ngokuthi lokhu akunjalo ngomqondo ojwayelekile ngoba izindleko eziphezulu zingadluliselwa kwezinye izinhlangano ezisochungechungeni lokunikezela ngezintengo eziphakeme zamazambane. Isici esibalulekile semakethe esivumela ukuthi izindleko zidluliswe ukuguquguquka kwentengo yesidingo. Ngenhlanhla kubakhiqizi bamazambane, isidingo samazambane silingana nenani, nenani elingu -0.6 njengoba kulinganiselwa uRichards noKaiser.
Kunezici ezimbili ezibalulekile zalesi silinganiso sokunwebeka. Okokuqala, inegethivu futhi, ngenxa yalokho ihambisana nomthetho wesidingo lapho amanani aphezulu ahambisana nenani eliphansi elifunwayo (futhi ngokuphambene nalokho). Okwesibili, ingaphansi kuka-1, okusho ukuthi kunoma yikuphi ukukhuphuka kwentengo kwephesenti, inani elifunekayo lehla ngephesenti eliphansi. Ngomqondo ojwayelekile, lapho impahla idingeka kakhulu, inani lentengo elinelastic liyisidingo sayo. Ngakho-ke, njengoba amazambane eyimifino ethandwa kakhulu phakathi kwabathengi base-US, isidingo samazambane sinenani eliningi kunaleso semifino ethandwa kakhulu.
Kodwa ingabe ukunwebeka kwentengo yesidingo ku-inelastic kwezingxenye ezintsha zokuthengisa, ukucubungula kanye nezinsiza zokudla embonini yamazambane? Ngomqondo ojwayelekile, yebo, kodwa kunezizathu zokukholelwa ukuthi ngeke zibe nelastic ngokulinganayo. URichards noKaiser balinganisela ukuthi ukunwebeka kwentengo yesidingo sokucubungula amazambane kusondele kumazambane athengiswayo. Kodwa-ke, izinkinga zedatha zokucubungula amazambane zenza kube nzima ukulinganisa ukunwebeka kwaleyo ngxenye.
Ukuthengiswa kwamazambane amasha kuthonywa amanani ahlobene emifino eshintshayo kanye nezici ezijwayelekile ezihlobene nesidingo sabathengi njengemali engenayo yabathengi kanye nenani labantu. Njengoba imali engenayo kanye nenani labantu, ngakho-ke ukuthengiswa kwamazambane amasha, kungashintsha unyaka nonyaka kuye ezingeni eliphakeme kunomthamo wokucubungula, kungenzeka ukuthi isidingo sokudayisa amazambane amasha sinwebeka kakhulu kunaleso sokucubungula amazambane. Naphezu komehluko kuzo zonke izingxenye zemakethe, njengoba amazambane eyimifino esetshenziswa kakhulu e-US, imvelo yentengo evamile yokufunwa kwe-inelastic cishe ngeke ishintshe esikhathini esiseduze.
Inzuzo Yepulazi
Ngalo mongo wesidingo sentengo esine-inelastic, ingxenye elandelayo ebalulekile yenzuzo ka-2022 ukuziphatha kwamanani amazambane. Isici esibalulekile samanani amazambane e-US izinga lokukhiqiza amazambane. Lokhu ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokumba eqolo ukuthutha amazambane ukusuka ekukhiqizeni kuya ezindaweni zokucubungula, okusho ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezinye izindawo ezikhiqiza amazambane (ngisho naseCanada) ngeke kuthathelwe indawo ukukhiqizwa kwasekhaya ngemali ephansi. Ngakho-ke, ngesidingo sentengo esine-inelastic kanye nempahla embalwa eshintshwayo, ukuncipha kokukhiqizwa kwe-US kuvame ukuhambisana nezintengo eziphakeme.
Njengoba i-NASS ilinganisela ukukhiqizwa okuphansi ngo-2021 uma kuqhathaniswa no-2020, kungenzeka ukuthi izintengo zango-2022 zizoba phezulu kuno-2021. Idatha yamanani evela ku-USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) ibonisa ukuthi amanani amazambane ase-US ayenyuka kusukela ngoNovemba kuya kuDisemba 2021. Inkomba yamanani angokomlando ibonisa ukuthi amanani avame ukunyuka kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-April. Ngakho-ke, abakhiqizi bamazambane bangalindela amanani aphezulu okungenani ezinyangeni ezimbalwa zokuqala zika-2022. Ingozi yokwehla kwentengo izovela cishe ngo-April lapho izilinganiso ezitshalwe endaweni zamazambane nezinye izitshalo sezaziwa.
Ingabe umsebenzi wakho uzoyithola inzuzo ngo-2022? Lo mbuzo unqunywa kakhulu indawo yokusebenza kwakho ochungechungeni lokuhlinzeka ngamazambane, nokuthi udayisela abathengisi, isevisi yokudla noma abacubungulayo. Ingxenye ngayinye inembuyiselo yayo kanye nephrofayili yobungozi. Ukukhethwa phakathi kwezinhlobo ezifana ne-Burbank vs Norkotah, kanye nekhono elihlobene lokuthengisa uhlobo ngalunye engxenyeni ngayinye yochungechunge lokuphakela amazambane, nakho kungaba nomthelela emandleni okuthengisa ngempumelelo amazambane ngentengo efiswayo.
Esinye isici esibalulekile yizinga elingakanani kanye nohlobo lwezivumelwano ezisetshenziswayo. Izinkontileka zokuthengisa ezinenani elimisiwe lokuthengisa zinciphisa ingcuphe yokuthengisa lapho izintengo zemakethe okungezona zenkontileka zehla. Kodwa-ke, kulesi sikhathi sezindleko zokufaka eziphakeme, ukukhiya amanani okuthengisa kuphela ekugcineni kungaholela enzuzweni ephansi.
Ngakho-ke, sincoma ukuthi abakhiqizi bamazambane basebenzise lesi sikhathi sokukhuphuka okukhulu kwezindleko zokufaka njengesikhathi sokubheka ukusebenza kwebhizinisi lamanje. Ingabe uhlelo lwakho lokumaketha lukunikeza imbuyiselo oyifisayo kanye nephrofayili engcuphe? Ingabe kukhona ukulungisa ongakwenza ezinhlelweni zakho zokukhiqiza ukuze ukwenze kungabi sengozini yokuthola inzuzo ephansi uma izindleko zikhuphuka ngokuzayo? Ingabe amathuluzi okulawula ubungozi (isb., izinkontileka) asetshenziswa njengamanje ezehlisa ubungozi ngokwanele futhi anikeze imbuyiselo eyanele? Sithemba ukuthi lesi sikhathi soshintsho singaba yithuba lokwenza noma okungenani sicabangele ukulungisa okufanele.